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10 year US Tsy market has triggered a bear trend signal.

My technical trend system for 10 year U.S.Tsy futures has triggered a bear signal the other day. The bear toggle had moved to 121-25.0 on Thursday the 28th of February. The close on that day was 121-24.0. I waited to see how the weekly close would go before writing this update. The weekly close was lower yet at 121-14.0.   This turn of events has triggered a bear trend signal that can not be ignored. There was no huge media headline event that caused the treasury market to toggle into the bear trend. I do not think that the US treasury will just fall out of bed. The HYG etf is showing some feeble signs that it could bounce higher over the next week, thus dragging the US treasury market a bit higher. On the upside, we could see the 10 year futures stage a bounce up to 121-26.5.  Not much to bank on... On February 12th, 2019, I stated that 32% of a portfolio should be locked for protection from higher interest rates. I anticipated that the market could likely see a bounce to the
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Bull 10 yr. tsy. has toggled to neutral.

Greetings to the sidelined tsy bears.... Today's close in the March 10 year futures has toggled my system from bullish to a stand-aside stance. The trigger mark was for a close below 121-26.6. We've violated that level. This trigger only takes us out of a bull mode. We need a daily close below 121-12.5 to trigger a short position. My gut feel is that the 10 year futures will hold together and still manage one more swing up to the 122-09.5 zone before they roll over and begin a bear trend. The longer term technical indicators for the 10 year tsy. futures has a bearish overtone. all the best, Martin
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The ten year treasury skating on thin ice

Greetings....I promise that spring will arrive some day... The winter doldrums can dull the senses to market activity. Hang on tight. As a generic factoid, there is approximately $100B of CMBS loans that come due from now thru the end of 2020....And 2020 is not that far out on the horizon. Deutsche Bank continues to be punished, ( perhaps well deserved?), by the marketplace as its funding costs weigh on this institutions' viability. A headline from late this afternoon states the the Fed says the US dollar may not retain its dominance...Throw in the fact that some public pensions have purchased cryptocurrency and that China continues as a rabid buyer of gold.... I'm not sure how this all shakes out...But I do know from a technical perspective that the 10 year US treasury futures are getting so very CLOSE to establishing a very important price peak. My longer term weekly and monthly indicators have tuned negative on the sector of the yield curve. For the short term, th
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on the eve of a critical market...01-29-2019

Greetings to the proletariat... The March ten year futures, (ZN), continue to have staunch technical support for a further drop in yields. All bets are off and we'll have a trend change if the March futures close below 120-26....Within a easy eagle put... ...Then it's 'Port des Mortes' for the treasury market as yields will scream to significantly higher yields over the next several months....BUT - for now, the trend is still for higher  note & bond prices unless these levels are violated on a daily closing basis. A couple of 'ticklers'.... The HYG etf, a close below 82.59 changes it to a confirmed bear trend for high yield, ( read TOXIC), paper. Not that far away...and that WILL drag the treasury market lower. No flight to 'quality', the world players now know that US treasury paper is a fiat ponzi scheme...       ...the ten year futures monthly chart will soon gasp its final breath...And it sure looks like it is about to serve up a very be
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Direction and Purpose

This blog will be periodically updated to give debt issuers and debt investors a technical perspective of the United States treasury market. Yield curve flucuations and individual treasury tenor market movements will be analyzed. Debt instruments outside the U.S. treasury market will be commented on as it is seen fit. This author's technical analysis shows that the capital markets are getting very close to a major trend change. I have been a student of the capital markets since 1973.
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