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10 year US Tsy market has triggered a bear trend signal.


My technical trend system for 10 year U.S.Tsy futures has triggered a bear signal the other day. The bear toggle had moved to 121-25.0 on Thursday the 28th of February. The close on that day was 121-24.0. I waited to see how the weekly close would go before writing this update. The weekly close was lower yet at 121-14.0.
 
This turn of events has triggered a bear trend signal that can not be ignored. There was no huge media headline event that caused the treasury market to toggle into the bear trend.

I do not think that the US treasury will just fall out of bed. The HYG etf is showing some feeble signs that it could bounce higher over the next week, thus dragging the US treasury market a bit higher. On the upside, we could see the 10 year futures stage a bounce up to 121-26.5.

 Not much to bank on...

On February 12th, 2019, I stated that 32% of a portfolio should be locked for protection from higher interest rates. I anticipated that the market could likely see a bounce to the 122-09.5  level. We did get that bounce to test that 122-09.5 zone. From the current perch we should go ahead and open the flood gates to achieve 100% of interest rate protection by shorting the balance of our needs in the 10 year futures. This should be done in the June futures, as the March contract will very soon be turned out to pasture. The June 10 year futures are currently traveling at 121-20.5 from Friday's settlement.

For the short term, say over the next 1-1/2 weeks, we could see the 10 year futures just march in place to maybe a touch higher in price, (121-26.5). After that point, the bear trend should unleash it's full fever upon the markets. Hit a bid & get a check. This upcoming bear market move in 10 year US treasuies will be very dramatic and it should has a dominoe effect on the equity market as well.

all the best,
Martin


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